FRISCO, Texas - FC Dallas climbed well above expectations last year, the debut campaign under Spanish manager Nico Estévez. It’s easy to like the team's chances of holding steady in conference positioning this year – assuming the burden of added expectation doesn’t lean too heavily on the young group.
As FCD finished 3rd in the West last season, so “holding serve” means finishing somewhere in that tight group of 3rd to 6th.
Can Estévez’s men improve? Can they push a bit higher, perhaps breaking the ceiling and threatening to place atop the 14-team Western conference? That’s a major 2023 initiative for Estévez, who is pounding away at any signs of contentment after last year’s rapid rise.
Simply put, FCD can indeed progress – but I’d say it depends on three things:
- Further improvement from the “youngs;”
- Adding a few goals without subtracting from any of last year’s defensive stability, and;
- Potentially improving the team’s central defensive triangle.
We’ll start with improvement from within, which mostly means further growth for FCD’s younger core. Start with Jesus Ferreira. On the one hand, it’s borderline absurd to request “improvement” from a guy who tied a club goals record last year while scoring (18) or assisting (6) on half of the team’s goals. Half! And doing so while claiming MLS Young Player of the Year. Then again …
There’s a feeling that Ferreira, now 22 years old and coming off an eventful offseason, has more to unlock. His numbers trailed off a little on the season’s back half, and he could certainly boost that goal total if FCD unlocks more penalty kick fortune. (Dallas attempted a league low one PK last year.)
Paxton Pomykal was terrific last year, ranking somewhere between “above average” and “elite” among MLS midfielders in most of the advanced metrics (progressive passes, tackles, pressures, touches in opposition penalty area, etc.) That said, he never quite put the cherry on the cake; he never actually scored. Pomykal deservedly elbowed his way back into the U.S. national team scene last year. He’ll probably stay there if he can add 3-5 for FCD in 2023.
Marco Farfan was an elite level shut-down left back last year, who also contributed to five goals (one goal, four assists). Can he supply a few more well targeted crosses, and perhaps toss in another goal or two? If so he’ll reliably find his way into conversations about Top 5 MLS left backs. He’s a smart guy and a hard worker and, at age 24, there’s every reason to think he can get there.
Maarten Paes, 24 years old, probably should have been in more of “top MLS goalkeeper” conversations last year, especially when it comes to shot stopping, the very bedrock of goalkeeping. Prediction: he will be this year, now that the Dutchman is better known in MLS circles. That’s especially true if he can add just a little more in terms of vocal presence and penalty area command.
Finally, there’s reason to believe winger Alan Velasco can boost productivity (above a healthy 6 goals and 7 assists in 23 starts last year) and show even more moments of that dynamic creativity in his second MLS go-round.
As for the two other elements of potential team improvement – those are connected. Last year’s 37 goals allowed, best in the West, was partially due to tactical structure. Estévez arranged his team to be ever watchful on the occasions when the ball was lost. That is: some of the team’s positional arrangement in possession was actually about being in the optimal spots for when possession was lost.
Why so? In part because FCD had been poor in defensive transition the previous season, 2021. And in part because the center backs, while experienced, organized and generally good at defending the penalty area, weren’t elite in defending out in space. As such, they needed a little more protection from the midfielders and wingers in front of them, especially during those decisive defensive transition moments.
To get a few more numbers around goal in attack, FCD may need to be slightly less protective, a smidge less risk averse through midfield. That only happens if the core defensive triangle – the two center backs and the holding midfielder – is rock solid.
There may be opportunities to shore up those spots in 2023. It will take someone special, to be sure – especially in replacing FCD defensive legend Matt Hedges. But if a DP-level center back or holding midfielder becomes available at the right price, that’s where a team already blessed with high quality attackers and capable attacking depth can really take a step forward in 2023.
