Steve Davis' weekly column, drilling down on five hot topics in American soccer
1. Talk of “treble,” but a “double” is hard enough
Talk of a “treble” in MLS may be wildly premature, but let’s face it: this is what we do as fans of the games we love. This is why we delight over our sports; for the chance to dream of things undone, of going places that clubs or individuals generally find too hard to reach.
So here we are with FC Dallas, the only club with a realistic chance to claim all three pieces of major domestic hardware available to MLS clubs: the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup, Major League Soccer’s Supporters Shield and the king daddy MLS Cup. This so-called “treble” is the chupacabra of domestic soccer: it has never been seen.
Still, before we go too far down the speculative rabbit hole of “treble talk,” let’s set this important bit of perspective on the table: as the domestic game grows and becomes increasingly competitive, just winning a “double” is increasingly tough stuff.
Once was the day when a “double” wasn’t such rarified space – the “double” here being defined as claiming any two of those three available trophies. Here’s the breakdown over 20 previous seasons:
- Supporters Shield winners who went on to be MLS Cup champs: 6
- Open Cup winners who went on to be MLS Cup champs: 3
- Open Cup winners who went on to win Supporters Shield: 2
So it’s not impossible – but it sure ain’t easy. And if we look closer at this treasure map of history, there’s a more pointed lesson to gain: Out of 11 “doubles,” 8 of them happened over Major League Soccer’s first decade, from 1996 to 2005. In what we might loosely define as the modern times of Major League Soccer, this has happened just three times:
- The 2008 Columbus Crew won MLS Cup and Supporters Shield.
- The 2011 LA Galaxy won MLS Cup and Supporters Shield.
- The 2014 Seattle Sounders won Supporters Shield and the Open Cup.
No mystery, really. Early MLS campaigns happened in days of unevenly stacked decks, with some teams (read: DC United) figuring out how to game the MLS personnel pipelines better than others. Bruce Arena, architect of those early DC United juggernauts, has admitted as much.
Today’s MLS finds the playing field far more level. Yes, some teams certainly spend more than others, but elevated transparency helps. And everyone more or less has the opportunity to spend as much as anyone else. Parity is thusly easier to achieve, which makes “doubles” and certainly any “trebles” harder to achieve.
Plus, there is the pure arithmetic of it: more teams competing for MLS Cup and the Supporters Shield reduce the mathematical chances for any single club. MLS was a 12-team league just 10 years ago, before the era or go-go growth, beginning with Toronto’s addition in 2007.
Plus-plus, more teams take the Open Cup more seriously now. Not every club, but more of them now, so that title chase gets more competitive each year, especially as teams from third-tier USL and second-tier NASL remain hungry to become the next giant killer.
Long story short: trebles may be out there, but doubles are increasingly rare – and will continue to be. With MLS becoming a 22-team league next year, then a 24-team operation soon after that, there’s no reason to think these things will ever get any easier.
2. MLS Cup on Saturday night … a big time feel
Major League Soccer has a history of getting where it needs to be – even if it doesn’t find the sweet spot as fast as some of us would like. It’s a symptom of a league that remains “under construction,” still a relative pup in this bigger sports kennel.
So it is with a Saturday night, network final. The news dropped Tuesday of a Dec. 10 final, 7 pm CT, on what a lot of us like to call Big Fox.
There is so much to like about this.
It starts with being on network TV for the first time since 2008, when Sigi Schmid and the Columbus Crew rolled into Southern California and beat back New York to win the crown on ABC. Network TV is big, regardless of the slot.
That’s only half of what to love about Tuesday’s news; the “Saturday” is huge, too. This Saturday in particular.
The concern about Saturday slots are always two-fold: First, going against college football could be problematic, depending on which clubs land in MLS Cup and what college football biggies might be kicking off around the involved regions. More critical, perhaps, is how TV slots get doled out around it all.
When the layers of conflict with college football and media partners (ABC, ESPN, Fox, FS1, UniMas, etc.) get too jammed up, the primo slots will go to the gridiron game and its higher ratings. That means soccer will get kicked over to Sunday – which means head-to-head with NFL.
So give me the potential college football conflicts any day. Because problematic as it may be, it’s a pillow fight compared to the bare knuckle brawl that is an NFL conflict.
In this year’s case, the timing works great due to minimal college football conflicts. As the second weekend in December in 2016 is mostly a “dead” week for the college game, that Saturday night spot works beautifully.
It’s a win-win-win for MLS.
Now let’s all just keep our fingers crossed for decent weather. First week of December can be ornery in some parts of the country, you know.
3. A U.S. team of MLS homegrowns? Yes, please
How long before we could deploy a pretty salty U.S. national team made up entirely of MLS homegrown men? You’ve already got eight darn good ones who have appeared for the full U.S. senior team: goalkeeper Bill Hamid, defenders Matt Miazga and DeAndre Yedlin, midfielders Kellyn Acosta and Wil Trapp and forwards Jordan Morris, Gyasi Zardes and Juan Agudelo.
Now let’s start thinking about (in no particular order) Harry Shipp, Victor Ulloa, Jordan Allen, Justen Glad, Tommy Redding, Bradford Jamieson IV, Erik Palmer-Brown, Marky Delgado, Tommy Thompson and a few others who are full of raw talent but maybe not quite in the “Pulisic zone,” not yet fully penciled in for “future U.S. stardom.”
(Survey question: Can we also count Jorge Villafaña, who wasn’t technically a homegrown MLS signing, but was a contest winner at Chivas USA? Hard to say how to classify … contest winners.)
Either way, a complete first 11 of homegrowns in the full U.S. shirt is a pretty cool thing to consider. Give that one a spin at your next round-table of bleacher creature soccer experts. What a day that’s going to be – because it’s out there sooner or later.
4. More disappointing: Jamaica or Canada?
The final six-team group for CONCACAF qualifying is set; we’ll have plenty of time to break down the matchups and odds for the United States, Mexico, Costa Rica, Trinidad & Tobago, Honduras and Panama. (So, same as 2014 final round qualifying out of CONCACAF except that T&T replaces Jamaica.)
Before we begin the breaking down and sorting out, a quick word about a couple of the team’s on the wrong side of those velvet ropes. Because it’s hard not to feel a bit of disappointment for Jamaica and Canada, both full of MLS men.
There’s talent in the Reggae Boyz pool, starting with a great leader in Leicester City captain Wes Morgan and a terrific goalkeeper in Philadelphia’s Andre Blake. Beyond that, there are plenty of solid pieces to build around, like former MLS Rookie of the Year runner-up Deshorn Brown, Watford defender Adrian Mariappa, Eintracht Frankfurt defender Michael Hector (on loan from Chelsea), San Jose Earthquakes DP Simon Dawkins and others.
Admittedly, it was a tough group, with Costa Rica’s Ticos plus a Panamanian team that came so agonizingly close to breaking through and qualifying for World Cup 2014. Still, isn’t it reasonable to expect to see Jamaica make it to the final night with chances intact? Instead, here’s what the “hometown” paper had to say about their Boyz after Friday’s kerplunk: “Jamaica surrendered meekly in a 0-2 defeat to Group B rivals Panama last night here inside Estadio Rommel Fernandez and were sent packing from CONCACAF World Cup qualifying.” With a game still to go!
Clearly, this is a long way from the 1998 World Cup team, coached by Rene Simoes, that qualified and won a first round match that summer in France (over Japan).
Then again, Jamaica has been to a World Cup more recently than Canada, despite a fairly constant production line of mid-level talent, along with the occasional difference-maker. Something clearly ails Canadian soccer, but don’t strain yourself trying to sort that one out. Coaches, pundits and armchair analysts have driven themselves to tears trying to figure it out. For decades! The Canadians last qualified for a World Cup in 1986.
It’s selfish, perhaps, but I’m still waiting for this: the brilliant atmosphere of a night match in Toronto or Montreal, where the border neighbors (United States and Canada) clash in a night of true tension, with World Cup berths on the line.
Oh, well … World Cup 2020 is just a few short years away.
5. The Little Five
5a. Heading into final round of World Cup qualifying, especially as Mexico is first up for the United States, this is a great piece on understanding Mexican soccer and the national team.
5b. FC Dallas didn’t wobble with the Fabian Castillo departure. And as MLSSoccer.com wise one Matthew Doyle says, the team has shown it won’t fall completely fall apart when playmaker Mauro Diaz takes a turn on the injury shelf. But I’ve said for a while, the one player FCD probably cannot live without in 2016 is Matt Hedges. Game after game, the cerebral center back gets it done and (even more impressively) generally makes it look easy. So keep an eye for updates this week following his scary, knee-to-head clash with Darren Mattocks late in last week’s win over Portland.
5c. Now onto the fun of picking venues for five U.S. home matches in the “Hex,” that peculiar and kind of goofy name for the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying. Columbus for the Nov. 11 match with Mexico, which appears to be the case? Heck yeah! Where else? Kansas City will surely get a match; it’s been a great venue for the United States. And I saw some debate about RFK Stadium. The old lady of U.S. Soccer venues, likely on its last legs, doesn’t necessarily deserve a “legacy” appointment. On the other hand, it’s the nation’s capital, and that counts for something. And it’s still a good atmosphere with a good, properly sized field.
5d. It’s such an awesome time in MLS. Almost every match from here forward (now into Week 27 of 34) carries significant meaning for one team, if not both. Consider Real Salt Lake vs. LA Galaxy (2nd vs. 4th in the West, a potential first-round bye dangling), San Jose vs. Seattle (potential playoff spot dangling) and Portland vs. Real Salt Lake (some of both on the dangle.) That’s not to mention the big steak sizzling in the Western pan, FC Dallas vs. Colorado in a contest that could go far in sorting out Supporters Shield. And all of that isn’t even looking at the other side of the standings, at happenings in the Eastern Conference.
5e. Of course, this ongoing playoff chase will not shake out well for everyone. Along those lines, it’s not hard to see as many as five off-season coaching changes during the short off-season to come. (That includes a couple of interim men who may not be retained, but doesn’t count whatever happens at the pair of incoming clubs, Atlanta and Minnesota.)